Could a crowded field of opposition candidates actually help defeat a long-ruling president? That's the surprising argument being made in Uganda, and it turns conventional wisdom on its head. Common Man's Party presidential candidate Mubarak Munyagwa is actively defending the presence of numerous opposition contenders in the upcoming 2026 election, claiming it's a strategic maneuver to prevent President Museveni from securing the 50% plus one vote needed for an outright victory. It sounds counterintuitive, right? But here's the logic...
During his campaign stops in Hoima City and Masindi District, as he wrapped up his Bunyoro tour, Munyagwa passionately urged voters to reject what he sees as deliberate misinformation. He specifically called out claims that the election's outcome is already predetermined in favor of the incumbent president, Museveni. He emphasized that Ugandans possess the power to change their government, if they turn out in large numbers to vote.
Munyagwa directly addressed the alleged propaganda: "I have heard RDCs, CISO, and security agencies telling people that President Museveni has already won the election. Don't accept that propaganda! If he has already won, why is he still actively campaigning and seeking votes?" He further asserted that Museveni and the ruling NRM (National Resistance Movement) party have had their opportunity and failed to deliver meaningful progress. "Even if we were to grant them another 100 years," Munyagwa stated, "they wouldn't bring about any positive change."
And this is the part most people miss... Munyagwa insists that the increasing number of opposition presidential hopefuls shouldn't be viewed as a weakness that dilutes the anti-Museveni vote. Instead, he argues, it significantly increases the probability of forcing a second round, a re-run election.
"There are people saying that because we are many opposition candidates, Museveni will win as we split our votes. It's not true!" he declared. "Being many is deliberate. As a lawyer, I understand the legal framework: our primary target is to deny him that crucial 50% plus one vote threshold. The more votes that go to NUP (National Unity Platform), FDC (Forum for Democratic Change), and ANT (Alliance for National Transformation), the more we collectively reduce his overall percentage. After that initial phase, we, as the opposition, can come together and chart a unified path forward." He even jokingly added, "Voting NUP, FDC, or ANT is perfectly acceptable, but voting the Common Man's Party is like receiving a land title in your own name!" (implying a more direct and personal benefit).
Munyagwa's reception in Hoima City was reportedly enthusiastic, especially in areas like the central market and Kiryatete, where traders cheered and danced in support. A similar, vibrant welcome awaited him in Masindi, with crowds dancing to campaign songs that incorporated Dr. Kizza Besigye's voice – a prominent opposition figure in previous elections – blended into Munyagwa's campaign music.
He directly appealed to ordinary citizens, arguing that the NRM no longer represents their interests. "The NRM is for big people, not the common person," he stated. "Figures like Nabbanja, Minister Kasaija, Minister Fred Byamukama, and the President are not common people. You – those working in salons, selling cassava, vending in markets – your party is the Common Man's Party. Support us so we can transform the nation together."
He explained that his party's symbol, a silver plate, represents the concept of equal sharing of national resources, without discrimination or favoritism. It symbolizes a commitment to fairness and equity for all citizens.
Across the Bunyoro sub-region, Munyagwa also emphasized the importance of residents defending their cultural identity. He reminded them of the region's rich history and heritage. "Bunyoro was a great kingdom under the leadership of the great King Omukama Kabalega, who was exiled for resisting foreign rule," he said. "Love your culture and resist bad governance by the NRM. You, as Banyoro, deserve better. Unite yourselves so you can make Bunyoro a great kingdom once again."
Munyagwa concluded by assuring his supporters that, if elected, he has a well-defined and comprehensive plan for improving service delivery and ensuring the fair and equitable distribution of resources throughout the entire country.
But here's where it gets controversial... Is Munyagwa's strategy a stroke of political genius, or a risky gamble that could inadvertently strengthen Museveni's position? Some might argue that a fragmented opposition only serves to confuse voters and makes it harder to build a cohesive movement for change. Others might disagree, seeing it as a clever way to exploit a loophole in the electoral system. What do you think? Could a divided opposition actually be a winning strategy in this case? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
